As 2008 began, I made ten predictions for things that would happen over the course of the year in the world of photography. Did any come true? Let's put it this way: if you were betting on this portfolio of predictions, you probably would have done better playing the stock market...
(Note: The lead photo for this article, depicting a new Leica M camera, is a fake!)
"New starter DSLRs will have Face Recognition Technology"
Sort of: The Olympus E-420 did, but the Canon XSi, Pentax K2000, and Nikon D60 did not.
"More pictures will be shot, fewer will be saved"
Yes: I wrote, "It’s already happening, thanks to cell phone cameras, the falling price of digital cameras, how easy it is to take pictures with them, and how complicated it is to print them. A generation is being raised to believe photographs are disposable (or deleteable), and paper memories are disappearing." I believe that prediction is holding true. The good news? LIFE magazine's entire photographic collection is now freely accessable via Google Images. Now those are pictures worth saving, and savoring.
"Digital camera prices will reach parity with film cameras"
Yes: I said entry-level digital SLRs will drop to around $400, which was roughly what basic film SLRs coast in the 90s, and basic point-and-shoots capable of 8x10 prints would be in the $100 range. Indeed, several Olympus DSLRs now cost under $400 and most entry-level models are in the $400-600 range. Very capable digital point-and-shoots can be found for between $100 and $200--which is about what film point-and-shoot cameras cost.
"Wi-Fi cards will rock the camera world"
Yes, as long as it's the SD camera world.
Eye-Fi reports that by 10:00 AM on December 25, so many presnt-opening photos were coming through their servers that they were experiencing heavy traffic and things were going very slowly. Their engineering elves worked overtime to fix the problem. Now, when will they add a CF card?
"Digital frames will surpass cameras as biggest holiday gift"
Sort of. Final sales figures aren't in yet, but
digital picture frames sold very, very well in 2008 while in some quarters, digital cameras are considered a "maturing" technology.
"Kodak will be saved by its new sensor"
Sort of. I predicted that Kodak would bring to market the first camera to use a new sensor technology they announced in 2007, and then license the sensors to other camera makers, and that Licensing this sensor will become a cash cow for Kodak. Kodak is licensing sensors (look for a Kodak sensor in the latest Hasselblad), but it's limited, so far.
"The Leica M8 will have company"
Yes: The Leica M8.2. But a full-frame digital Voiglander or Zeiss rangefinder camera? Didn't happen! (Boy did I get grief from certain quarters because I also suggested the Sigma DP-1 might be competition for the Leica M8, and even siphen off sales! The DP-1, along with the Panasonic DX3, have "Leica Lite" aspirations but while their image quality is better than most compacts, and they are impressive and unique cameras in their own ways, they fall short of the Leica standard--unless compared to the Leica D-Lux 4.)
"Infrared photography will become cliché"
No: What was I thinking? It's still cool.
"2008's sleeper pro cam? The Olympus E-3!"
No: While the E-3 remains a great, underappreciated camera, it was eclipsed by the arrival of the Canon 5D Mark II, the first DSLR with HD video, and the revival of Nikon thanks to its new generation of full-frame pro cameras and improved prosumer cameras. And then there was Sony, which entered the pro-camera fray with the full-frame, 24MP Alpha 900. Didn't see
that coming.
"We'll be able to change focus after the fact"
No: Refocusing technology, which was demonstrated in 2006, was still vaporware in 2008.
...So, how'd I do? 60% accurate, if I'm generous with myself. 40%, if I'm honest. I better get my crystal ball fixed before I post my predictions for 2009...
